Estimates
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-07-27.
The consensus tape is being marked down on earnings, not revenue: FY2027 normalized EPS has been cut roughly 12% over the past 90 days while the FY2027 revenue line held flat-to-higher. That out-year markdown coexists with a string of near-term beats — normalized EPS has topped consensus in seven of the last eight quarters. The Street stays buy-skewed with no sell ratings, but coverage thins quickly past FY2027 and the FY2027 EPS range is unusually wide.
FY2027 normalized EPS cut ~12% in 90 days while the revenue line held
The markdown sits in earnings, not revenue: FY2027 EPS is down across 30/90/180 days while FY2027 revenue is flat-to-higher. FY2028 shows a milder version of the same split.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Point-in-time consensus; Δ90d is Now versus 90d.
| Metric | FY | 180d | 90d | 30d | Now | Δ90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027 | $10.07 | $9.45 | $9.50 | $8.36 | -11.6% |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028 | $10.06 | $9.08 | $10.13 | $9.44 | +4.0% |
| Revenue | FY2027 | $10.05bn | $10.15bn | $10.33bn | $10.35bn | +2.0% |
| Revenue | FY2028 | $10.00bn | $10.49bn | $11.37bn | $10.81bn | +3.1% |
EPS beat in seven of the last eight quarters; revenue swung from misses to beats
The lone EPS miss was -4% in Q2 2025; the three most recent quarters all beat. Read against the out-year EPS cuts, the company is beating near-term while analysts trim later years.
Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 2 consecutive beats; EPS (normalized): 3 consecutive beats.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective.
| Quarter | Metric | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 | Revenue | $3.05bn | $3.31bn | +8.5% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $3.63 | $3.83 | +5.4% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2025 | Revenue | $2.29bn | $2.31bn | +0.8% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $1.89 | $2.00 | +5.9% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2025 | Revenue | $1.93bn | $1.85bn | -4.1% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.85 | $0.97 | +14.3% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | Revenue | $2.07bn | $2.02bn | -2.2% | Miss |
| Q2 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $1.15 | $1.10 | -4.1% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2025 | Revenue | $2.24bn | $2.30bn | +2.6% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $1.87 | $2.02 | +8.0% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | Revenue | $1.77bn | $1.59bn | -9.8% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $0.47 | $0.55 | +17.5% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | Revenue | $547.59m | $407.00m | -25.7% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | -$0.06 | $0.16 | +371.4% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2024 | Revenue | $603.12m | $378.00m | -37.3% | Miss |
| Q2 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | -$0.02 | $0.01 | +163.0% | Beat |
Forward estimates
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · YoY uses the prior fiscal year from the feed; analyst count and range use the first displayed period.
| Metric | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.94bn | $10.35bn | $10.81bn | +17.3% | 8 | $9.36bn / $11.57bn |
| EBITDA | $5.92bn | $5.86bn | $6.14bn | +16.5% | 22 | $5.52bn / $7.16bn |
| EPS (normalized) | $8.44 | $8.36 | $9.44 | +38.3% | 21 | $7.50 / $9.64 |
| Free cash flow | $2.88bn | $2.61bn | $2.83bn | +44.6% | — | — |
Analysts split hard on FY2027: normalized EPS spans $4.78 to $18.37
With 22-23 analysts each, the FY2027 EPS and EBITDA ranges are too wide to be coverage noise — they reflect real disagreement on the out-year model.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Spread/mean is absolute high-low divided by absolute mean.
| Metric | Period | Mean | Low–high | Spread/mean | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027E | $8.36 | $4.78–$18.37 | 162.5% | 23 |
| EBITDA | FY2027E | $5.86bn | $4.70bn–$9.00bn | 73.2% | 22 |
| EBITDA | FY2028E | $6.14bn | $4.88bn–$9.10bn | 68.7% | 17 |
Street snapshot
17 buys and 3 outperforms against 6 holds and zero sells, a clearly buy-skewed book; targets range from $92 to $160.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Analyst counts shown explicitly.
| Street view | Reading | Analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Recommendation mix | Buy 17, Outperform 3, Hold 6, Underperform 0, Sell 0 | 26 |
| Consensus score | 1.58 | 26 |
| Target price | mean $124.1; median $124.0; high $160.0; low $92.00 | 25 |
Coverage thins fast past FY2027 and revenue is lightly modeled throughout
Revenue carries only 8 annual estimates even in current years, and outer-year coverage collapses to 5 analysts for FY2028 and 1 for FY2029 — treat those levels as indicative. EBITDA and EPS are far better covered at 20-plus.