Models

Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 23 brokers · 484 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-26.

Visible Alpha's models frame Expand Energy as a scale gas producer with a clearing balance sheet: total output grows mid-single digits then slows, led almost entirely by the Haynesville, while Appalachia is held roughly flat. Modeled cash flow humps in FY-2026 and eases in FY-2027 with the Henry Hub curve before recovering, and net debt runs to zero by FY-2028 — shifting capital returns from deleveraging toward buybacks. Coverage is deep on the aggregates (20+ brokers) but thin on the basin and segment splits (5-10 brokers).

Haynesville drives modeled volume growth; Appalachia is held roughly flat

Line	FY-2025A	FY-2026E	FY-2027E	FY-2028E	YoY	Brokers
Companywide	—	—	—	—	—	—
Gas equivalent production per day(Mmcfe)	7.16m mcfe	7.51m mcfe	7.68m mcfe	7.79m mcfe	+4.8%	23
By basin	—	—	—	—	—	—
Gas equivalent production per day - Haynesville(Mmcfe)	3.01m mcfe	3.22m mcfe	3.31m mcfe	3.41m mcfe	+6.9%	11
Gas equivalent production per day - Marcellus / Northeast Appalachia(Mmcfe)	4.16m mcfe	4.30m mcfe	4.12m mcfe	4.08m mcfe	+3.4%	11

The gas-price deck is the real debate — Henry Hub spans $2.77-$4.12 in FY-2027

Henry Hub is the swing assumption here, and the FY-2027 deck ranges $2.77 to $4.12 across 20 brokers (median $3.50). That mid-curve dip — mean $3.70 in FY-2026 easing to $3.55 in FY-2027 — is what pulls modeled EBITDAX and free cash flow lower in FY-2027 before both recover in FY-2028.

Line	Period	Median	Q1–Q3	Min–max	Brokers
Henry Hub : Natural Gas($)	FY-2026E	$3.67	$3.61–$3.74	$3.54–$4.00	20
Henry Hub : Natural Gas($)	FY-2027E	$3.50	$3.41–$3.75	$2.77–$4.12	20
Henry Hub : Natural Gas($)	FY-2028E	$3.75	$3.66–$4.00	$3.46–$4.12	16
Natural gas price ex. hedging($)	FY-2027E	$3.20	$3.13–$3.42	$2.58–$3.71	18

Deleveraging is nearly done — models pivot cash toward buybacks, net cash by FY-2028

Line	FY-2025A	FY-2026E	FY-2027E	FY-2028E	YoY	Brokers
Cash flow	—	—	—	—	—	—
Free cash flow - Analyst published	$1.98bn	$2.89bn	$2.62bn	$2.82bn	+45.6%	17
Balance sheet	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net debt	$4.06bn	$2.07bn	$764.75m	$-635.32m	-49.1%	11
Returns	—	—	—	—	—	—
Share repurchase-CF	$103.93m	$598.28m	$795.23m	$842.37m	+475.7%	19
Cash dividend paid	$797.25m	$606.49m	$690.52m	$667.85m	-23.9%	19

Per-Mcfe cost stack: the one clear trend is falling interest expense

The cost stack is steady — DD&A near $1.10 and production costs around $0.25 per Mcfe — with the one clear trend being interest expense falling from $0.089 to $0.057 per Mcfe across FY-2025 to FY-2028 as debt comes down. Coverage on these lines is deep, at up to 22 brokers.

Line	FY-2025A	FY-2026E	FY-2027E	FY-2028E	YoY	Brokers
Oil natural gas and NGL production per Mcfe($)	$0.24	$0.26	$0.25	$0.25	+6.0%	23
D,D & A per Mcfe($)	$1.13	$1.10	$1.12	$1.12	-2.0%	23
General and administrative per Mcfe($)	$0.07	$0.09	$0.08	$0.09	+19.7%	23
Production taxes per mcfe($)	$0.08	$0.08	$0.08	$0.09	-0.9%	23
Interest expense per mcfe($)	$0.09	$0.07	$0.06	$0.06	-20.3%	22

Basin and segment splits rest on far fewer brokers than the aggregates

Headline aggregates — total production, prices, EBITDAX — carry 17-23 brokers, but the differentiated lines are thinner: basin volumes and capex on 5-11, segment revenue on 5-8, and net debt on 10. Treat the basin and segment splits as a handful of models, not a settled consensus.

Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.